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This chapter explores policy implications of deliberately targeted interventions aimed at closing the gap between nutrition baseline trends and desirable levels of nutrition intake according to World Health Organization/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations guidelines. Special attention is paid to the implications for those at the bottom of the nutrition achievement range (Bottom Billion).

We conduct a forward looking evaluation with a global multimarket model for agriculture within the context of key drivers of change. We observe the effect of interventions on nutrition intake for the most food-insecure regions as transmitted through food prices, changes in country-level food trade, and other market-driven outcomes. We demonstrate the nutrition-enhancing effects that occur when animal-sourced protein consumption, livestock production, and livestock feed demand decrease in developed countries. We also show the effect of a significant growth in agricultural productivity and household incomes.

Our analysis shows that the most effective intervention boosts household income to facilitate adequate intake of food and key nutrients. Diet changes have notable effects but are harder to implement on a practical level. Enhancing agricultural productivity (especially in regions with historically low yields) is also effective in improving nutrition outcomes.

Short of social protection and direct assistance programs, the ability of policy to effect short-term changes in nutritional status is limited. We highlight the effectiveness of pathways that promote longer-term socioeconomic growth and productivity gains as ways of improving the nutrition and health status of consumers.

In this chapter, we explore the future global supply and demand trends for key agricultural products under baseline assumptions of socioeconomic changes in population and income. We examine nutritional trends under this baseline to highlight countries that lag behind in attaining key dietary sufficiency targets.

Using a global multimarket agricultural model, we disaggregate the key macronutrients within food commodities to understand how progress toward target dietary intake levels of nutrients compares across various regions. We look particularly at those regions whose populations fall into the bottom sixth of nutritional attainment (the Bottom Billion) and note their slow projected progress toward achieving dietary sufficiency in key macronutrients.

Many countries falling into the Bottom Billion category of nutritional attainment are in Africa and Asia. Colombia is the only Latin American country that fell into this category. Most populations in the Bottom Billion are deficient in carbohydrate, protein, and fiber intake.

Policies aimed at eliminating hunger and improving the nutritional status of populations must be aligned with evolving socioeconomic patterns and changes that shape food consumption and dietary patterns. This analysis evaluates regions of the world in greatest need of attaining sufficient dietary intake of important nutrients, and sets the stage for a deeper discussion of policy options for improving these regions’ food security.